Bitcoin gains 44% in Q3, its best quarter since late 2024
Bitcoin has left gold, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq far behind this quarter. An FxPro analyst calls it a bull market but warns sharp pullbacks remain possible.
With only a few trading days left in the July to September quarter, Bitcoin is sitting on a gain of roughly 44%. If that holds, it will be the coin's best three-month stretch since the October to December quarter of 2024. BTC was trading close to $85,800 as the quarter drew to a close.
Bitcoin against other assets
The gap with traditional markets is wide. Gold rose about 8.7% over the same period, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq managed only around 2% apiece.
That does not put Bitcoin back at its peak. Measured against its October 2025 record of about $126,000, the coin still has ground to recover. The recent breakout still matters, though: price has cleared the resistance band that held it back in May and is now at its highest level since January.
Large altcoins have done even better in percentage terms. ETH, XRP, SOL, UNI and NEAR have each gained between 40% and 150% during the quarter.
Three reasons behind the rally
Friendlier US regulation
On 17 September the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) unveiled a five-year innovation exemption that allows qualifying platforms to trade tokenised US stocks on public blockchains. Markets took it as a sign that Washington wants on-chain markets to expand, not shrink.
Short sellers forced out
As the price pushed higher, about $648 million worth of bearish positions were liquidated. Those forced buy-backs added fuel to the move.
A key chart level reclaimed
For the first time in 45 weeks, Bitcoin ended a week above its 50-week moving average. In past cycles, that line has tended to mark the point where bear phases came to an end.
An analyst's warning
Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, believes the market has already turned, but he is not calling for a straight line up. "This is already a bull market, but that does not rule out sudden pullbacks," he said. He advises heightened caution until there are clearer signals of a transition to active growth.
What it means for Indian traders
A quarter like this makes it tempting to increase position sizes. Volatility works in both directions, however. The same forces that wiped out $648 million of short bets can flush out over-leveraged long positions just as quickly if the market reverses.
Indian traders also need to keep tax in mind. Crypto profits are taxed at a flat 30%, and a 1% TDS applies to transfers, so frequent in-and-out trading on a volatile market carries a real cost. Decide your risk limit first and let position size follow from it, not from the latest headline. This is not financial advice.
This article is AI-assisted, educational and general in nature. It is not financial advice and never a guarantee of profit. Every trade is at your own risk on your own exchange. See our risk disclosure and editorial policy.
