Bitcoin Hits $87K on Weak Jobs Data, Then Falls Below $84K
US payrolls rose just 29,000 in September. Bitcoin jumped to $87,220, then slid to $83,888 as bond yields bounced back. What moved it and what to watch.
Bitcoin climbed above $87,000 on Friday, 2 October 2026, after the US government reported that employers added only 29,000 jobs in September, then gave the whole move back as US bond yields turned higher. It peaked near $87,220 soon after the 6:00 pm IST release and touched about $83,890 around midnight IST. The live Bitcoin price in INR is ₹8,096,152 right now.
Key takeaways
- US nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000 in September, far below forecasts of roughly 85,000 to 90,000. Unemployment edged up to 4.2% from 4.1%.
- July and August were revised down by a combined 60,000 jobs. July now shows a loss of 10,000.
- Bitcoin's range on 2 October was about $83,890 to $87,220, or roughly ₹80.8 lakh to ₹84.0 lakh at ₹96.33 per dollar. It closed the UTC day near $84,520.
- Futures pricing cut the chance of a Fed rate rise on 28 October to about 13%, from about 25% that morning.
- Friday's weekly options on Deribit settled at $85,875, about $2,900 above the $83,000 max pain level.
What the jobs report showed
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics published its September employment report at 8:30 am US Eastern time, which was 6:00 pm in India. Hiring was weak across the board. Health care added 17,000 jobs, construction 11,000 and manufacturing 9,000. Wages grew slowly too.
| Measure | September 2026 | What was expected or reported before |
|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls | +29,000 | Forecasts of roughly 85,000 to 90,000 |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2% | 4.1% in August |
| Average hourly earnings, month | +0.1% (to $37.81) | About +0.3% forecast |
| Average hourly earnings, year | +3.0% | About 3.2% forecast |
| July payrolls (revised) | −10,000 | First reported as +21,000 |
| August payrolls (revised) | +133,000 | First reported as +162,000 |
Why Bitcoin rose, then fell
This year the US Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates, not cutting them. On 16 September it lifted its target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00%, its first increase since July 2023. Higher rates make safe assets such as bonds more attractive and tend to weigh on riskier ones like crypto. A weak jobs report gives the Fed less reason to raise rates again, so traders bought.
The rally had started before the data. Around 9:30 am IST, Bitcoin jumped from about $85,500 to nearly $86,900 in an hour as traders who had bet on a fall were forced to buy back their positions. The jobs numbers then pushed it to the day's high.
The bond market undid the move. The 10-year US Treasury yield first dipped to about 5.15%, then climbed back to about 5.26% by the New York afternoon, and the 2-year yield rose from about 4.71% to 4.81%. Bitcoin slid with it, losing about $3,330, or 3.8%, from peak to low. Ether followed the same path: it hit about $2,777, fell to about $2,651 and closed the UTC day near $2,669. Track ether on our Ethereum price in INR page. We saw the same pattern after Wednesday's inflation data, covered in Bitcoin tops $85,500 on soft PCE.
How Friday's options expiry settled
About $2.4 billion of bitcoin options expired on Deribit at 08:00 UTC (1:30 pm IST), hours before the jobs data. Our preview of this expiry set out the open positions on 30 September. Here is how they finished:
| Coin | Max pain (30 Sept snapshot) | Settlement price, 2 Oct | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $83,000 | $85,875 | +$2,875 (+3.5%) |
| Ether (ETH) | $2,620 | $2,728 | +$108 (+4.1%) |
The biggest put positions, at $78,000, $80,000 and $82,000, all expired worthless, while calls at $82,000 finished in the money. Ether's largest single bet, a $3,000 call, expired worthless. The result shows that max pain is a reference point, not a magnet. Our explainer on max pain for Indian investors covers why.
What it means for Indian investors
A swing of about ₹3.2 lakh per bitcoin within a few hours is normal around big US data releases. If you had bought ₹1,00,000 of bitcoin at Friday's peak, it would have been worth about ₹96,200 at the low. That is why many Indian investors spread purchases over weeks with a rupee cost averaging plan instead of buying in one go after a jump.
If you sell at a profit, the gain is taxed at a flat 30% plus 4% cess, with 1% TDS on the sale and no set-off for losses. Check the numbers with our crypto tax calculator before you sell.
What to watch next
- Fed decision, 28 October: due at 2:00 pm US Eastern time, which is 11:30 pm IST. A hold would remove one worry for crypto; a surprise hike would add to it.
- Bond yields: the 10-year yield near 5.25% has capped every rally this week.
- Next expiries: the weekly Deribit expiry on Friday 9 October and the much larger monthly expiry on 30 October, both at 1:30 pm IST. See our Bitcoin options expiry tracker and our guide to crypto futures expiry times in India.
- October jobs report: scheduled for 6 November 2026.
FAQ
Why did Bitcoin rise on 2 October 2026?
US employers added only 29,000 jobs in September, which lowered the odds of another Fed rate rise in October. Bitcoin jumped to about $87,220 shortly after the 6:00 pm IST release.
Why did Bitcoin fall after the jobs report?
US Treasury yields reversed and rose during the New York afternoon, with the 10-year yield back near 5.26%. Bitcoin followed and slipped to about $83,890 around midnight IST.
What was the Bitcoin options settlement price on 2 October 2026?
Deribit's weekly bitcoin options settled at $85,875 at 08:00 UTC (1:30 pm IST), about $2,875 above the $83,000 max pain level. Ether options settled at $2,728.
This article is AI-assisted, educational and general in nature. It is not financial advice and never a guarantee of profit. Every trade is at your own risk on your own exchange. See our risk disclosure and editorial policy.
