Bitcoin closes above 50-week average, first time in 45 weeks
Galaxy Research found 13 such crossovers since 2011, and 11 were never followed by a lower low. The two failures in 2021 and 2022 show the limits of the signal.
For the first time in 45 weeks, Bitcoin has ended a week above its 50-week simple moving average, a line that long-term chart watchers treat as a dividing point between bear and bull phases. BTC closed the week near $81,450 while the average stood at roughly $78,115, a comfortable margin.
The weekly candle added almost 6%, and it capped a 29% rally over the previous 35 days.
What the history shows
Galaxy Research went back through every major Bitcoin downturn since 2011 and counted 13 times the price recovered above its 50-week average. In 11 of the 13, the market never went on to set a lower low. In those cases the crossover effectively marked the bottom of the decline.
Several of the crossovers came just before some of Bitcoin's best-known bull runs:
- January 2012: followed by the climb to roughly $1,200 in late 2013.
- October 2015: followed by the rally to about $20,000 in December 2017.
- May 2019: followed by the break above $69,000 in November 2021.
- March 2023: followed by the rise to about $126,000 in October 2025.
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, described the latest close as a "potentially important confirmation that the market's bear phase may have run its course."
When the signal went wrong
Two crossovers did not work out. Bitcoin moved back above the average on 26 December 2021 and again on 27 March 2022, and both times the market went on to make fresh lows later in 2022. It is a useful reminder that an indicator's track record gives context. It does not guarantee what happens next.
What a 50-week average measures
A simple moving average is the mean closing price over a set period, here the last 50 weekly closes, or close to a year of trading. Because it moves slowly, a close above it says more about the broad trend than about where price goes next week.
How Indian traders can use it
Treat this as a signal about the market regime, not an entry point. It may be a reason to look more favourably at long setups, but it is not a reason to buy without a stop-loss. If you trade on daily or 4-hour charts, the risk you take on each trade should stay the same whether or not a weekly line has been crossed. This is not financial advice.
This article is AI-assisted, educational and general in nature. It is not financial advice and never a guarantee of profit. Every trade is at your own risk on your own exchange. See our risk disclosure and editorial policy.
